🧠 Technical analysis for your safety

GM Seedphrasers 👋 Welcome to the first Technical Analysis Tuesday, where we explain charts going up and down so simply a third grader can leverage the information.

Today’s Agenda: 📓

• 🚔 SBF finally arrested in the Bahamas.

• 🔬 BTC & ETH on-chain data.

• 🥇 This week's top-performing coins.

• 🤓 Reader of the week.

🚔 SBF Arrested in The Bahamas 

After almost a month of Twitter Space Appearances, SBF has finally been arrested by Bahamian police and will likely be extradited to the US.

We'll keep you updated on how this plays out. At this point, anything is possible.

Is Do Kwon next?

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🔬 Technical Tuesdays.

Seedphrase just got a facelift.

Our daily research is designed for YOU. So we took that idea to the next level. Everyday is now dedicated to specific topics, so you can be a well rounded degenerate. 

Our Daily Content Calendar:

📈 All the On-Chain Data You Need for the Week.

We start with BTC and ETH analysis.

They are market movers. Simply put, BTC go down --> market go down. BTC go up --> market go up. 

 👇 We Cover:

• BTC and ETH Charts

• Daily Volume

• BTC Miner Revenue. 

• Open Interest

• Proof of Reserves.

• Daily Exchange Flow

• Volume by dApp revenue

• Top Performing Coins

BTC & ETH Charts

We've seen a huge spike this morning after the CPI data came in at +7.1% vs 7.3% expected, so here's the macro outlook:

BTC Chart

• Hovering around 17K support line the past two weeks.

ETH chart

• Hovering at the $1,250 support line.

Daily On-chain Volume

After looking at charts, volume is one of the first concepts you need to know.

Also known as on-chain flow, it is the cumulative sum of crypto being bought and sold.

For example: If $1B ETH were traded daily, the volume of ETH would be $1B.

A decline in trading volume indicates investor caution, which is a sign that they are waiting for macroeconomic variables to improve. 

Binance's BTC:

This graph is hard to read for many. Here's the translation:

• Almost 18,000 BTC left the Binance exchange!

• When high volumes leave an exchange = people are HODLing

• BTC conviction is up, Binance conviction is lower

BTC miner revenue

The Hash rate is a fantastic indicator of how healthy the network is. 

A decrease in hash rate means fewer miners are working on mining BTC, which usually means miners struggle for profits and reduce or close down their operations.

Miner revenue from fees has been relatively flat since September. Randing from 1.5% revenue to 3.5%. 

Revenue Local Bottom: because of the crypto contagion, more miners going offline, and mining companies struggling. 

BTC miners' balance reached a 14-month low. 

It takes around 12K to mine 1 BTC. With BTC holding at around 17K, profit margins are thin after you include expenses.

These all bolster the point that miners are struggling to make money.

They are selling their reserves to be able to fund their business.

When BTC is high in price and miners are profitable, their balance is higher, so they tend to hold longer. 

Open Interest

The number of open positions (including long/short positions) currently on a derivative exchange's BTC/USD trading pair.

Wtf does that mean? Open interest = the total number of open futures contracts held by market participants. Ex: if a ton of short positions are open, market sentiment is that prices will continue to drop. 

Perpetual futures contracts are the means people use to open long/short positions.

When open interest numbers are down, it means traders are on the sidelines, indicating a bearish market. 

BTC open interests for perpetual futures contracts

Kraken: BTC perpetual futures contracts 24hr reached a 5-year low of $152,797 

Binance: BTC Perpetual futures contracts hit a two-year low of $2,542,498,400.08

ETH open interests for perpetual futures contracts

Kraken: ETH interest reached a 1-month low of $9,978,158. 

People stepping out at this rate indicate:

•  Further price slippage 

or

• A big unknown of where markets are going to go.

The decrease in open interest emphasizes market sentiment: much less active traders. Many are looking for signs of macroeconomic stability before trading their money again.

We spot a theme here...

Proof of Reserves (PoR)

In theory, PoR is a way to an exchange can prove customer assets are safe and sound by revealing their reserves (funds).

Since Binance is the largest global exchange, we'll be covering their reserves.

🚨 IMPORTANT NOTE: A majority of their reserves are in BUSD. 

In the past 24 hours 

• BTC reserves decreased by $33,688,026.63

• ETH decreased by $9,055,482

• USDT INCREASED by $138,399,400.

• USDC decreased by $47,689,500.

The big question is; Why have Tether reserves increased? 🔎 🤔

ETH's wallet and Dev Activity.

Developer activity is a means of determining where the real BUILDERS are. 

When investing long-term, these are very insightful macros to follow regarding what projects will return for the next bull market. 

ETH addresses holding 10+ ETH hit an ATH.

This can only mean one thing. 😱

1. NFT bull run.

Historically when people load up on ETH, it historically means NFT movement, and investors are getting their liquidity ready to buy. 

The sentiment could be better, but with all the noise happening with CockPunch, Pudgy Penguins and more over the last few days, it's not that farfetched.

Price of ETH developer activity.

Even with the cost of ETH going down, plenty of people are still building on it despite the bear, reaffirming its longevity and reputation as a coin.

Check out active developers that are going hard. 👷

These numbers help indicate which blockchain will have a good price movement in the next cycle because of the building done during the bear. 

Right now: ETH, Cosmos, Cardano, Kusama, and Polkadot are the front runners.

Token terminal transactions and volume by dApp revenue:

Revenue/fees indicate what is still working during a bear and what projects are building, giving them a strong chance of being relevant to the next bull.

Revenue 

In the last seven days, ETH generated $16M

• Opensea did $2.5M

• LIDO Finance at $584K

• Looksrare at $569K

Fees:

ETH is leading with $19M in fees

• Opensea at $8.8M

• Lido at $5.8M

• Uniswap at $4.9M

• Binance smart chain at $4M.

It's clear ETH is blowing everything else out of the water, and it's not even close.

But these indicate where the money has been flowing.

Opensea coming in second correlates with NFTs seeing a pump last week.

The biggest coins right now by Market Cap: 🔒

🤓 Seedphraser of the week. 

Thank you for reading, ma'am. We hope to deliver even better content in the future, so stay tuned.

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DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research