🧠 We're giving you a free lil pudgy penguin.

Yes, you read that right. Do you feel it?

December 06, 2022

GM Seedphrase Nation 👋 Last week, you all told us you want more data & analysis. So today is all about TA & on chain data. Let's get right into it.

Today's Agenda 📓: 

  • 🐧 Pudgy Give Away

  • 🧠 Stay away from this exchange

  • ✋ BTC movement

  • 👟 Two upcoming projects you don't want to miss

  • 😂 Meme of the Day

Get a Lil Pudgy for Free!

If you don't have an NFT, or want to know what it's like being part of the most active community in NFTs, here's your chance. 

We're doing a giveaway and it's ridiculously easy to enter: 

We've extended the giveaway to make sure everyone has a chance. 

We're a tight night community here at Seedphrase and we want to see all of you win! 

Their Reserves: Exchange Data Bites

Could millions have saved themself from the FTX crash? 

Maybe. We wonder if the industry had taken a closer look under the hood of FTX, people would have withdrawn and stayed away from the exchange much sooner. Now, all we can do is learn from the mistake. 

Today we'll be taking a look at 3 exchanges and their reserves.

  • 🟦 Binance 

  • 🟦 Bitfinex

  • 🟦 Kucoin 

Then we'll take a look at the market mover:

  • 🟧 BTC analysis 

Does the math be mathing?

🟦 Binance

Proof of reserves:

Green flag: Their largest and most consistent reserve is of course their stable coin, BUSD. BTC & ETH come in next. 

FTX, on the other hand, was using their native FTT token (the one made from thin air with no real value) as one of their main assets. At least Binance isn't doing that with BNB.

For mental health reasons, we pray Binance isn't going anywhere, or the crypto beating will be bigger than Saudi Arabia vs Argentina. 

🟦 Bitfinex

Founded in 2012, Bitfinex has remained a top 10 leader in trading by market cap for years.

But take one look at their reserves and you'll see things aren't great at the moment.

Of course, a drop in reserves makes sense in this economy.

However, their BTC reserve levels are bordering concern. They are averaging $86M in daily trading volume. If this number ticks up, while their reserves continue to down trend, this could be disastrous.

BTC reserves: one of the most important metrics to look at. With out BTC, trading runs into A LOT of issues. The fact is, many trade pairings are tied to BTC: 

  • BTC/ETH

  • BTC/USDT

  • BTC/SOL

  • BTC/USDC

If they struggle to serve these pairings, there's no reason for traders to use their exchange. The rest of their reserves:

NO FUDDING: we're not here to create unnecessary fud. BTC is still their highest currency reserve, with their native token $LEO coming in second. We just want to show you the full picture. 

🟦 Kucoin

This one we are skeptical of. We wouldn't want our friends and family using it, so we don't want our Seedphrase family using it either. 

  • HEAVY decline in reserves over the past few months.

  • 🚨 Safety level: cautious.

Since July, KuCoin reserves have seen a volatile drop. Plus, the volume of reserves does not seem to look promising if things continue to trend this way, which we think they will. 

If you use KuCoin or know someone who does, let them know it's better to be safe than sorry. It's not worth dying for. 

🟧 ETH analysis: 

Current supply:

  • Since the merge, the creation of new ETH into circulation has seemingly leveled off.

  • ETH is becoming deflationary

In the last year, ETH has never held a steady supply line until now, at 120.52M ETH in circulation. 

💸 What this means for you: if you like ETH, believe in ETH, or want to make money with ETH, we would consider looking to scoop some up. We are near bottom territory (remember, timing the exact bottom is for fools) so it is not a bad time to buy. A deflationary ETH, in simple terms, just means that as markets start to pick back up, the price of ETH will rise faster than other coins- because the supply is semi fixed. AKA, you'd be making money moves.

Side note: there is a chance for ETH to have more downward price action, but we do not recommend trying to time this as your primary strategy.

Active addresses 

  • The growth of addresses has slowed since Feb 2021 as the markets started to go stagnant and more bearish

  • Active addresses have been trending sideways. 

  • Fewer people are involved in NFTs, Defi, and the excitement is reflected.

Wait until alt season. 

NFT traders

  • The average number of trades per user on Opensea is around 2.

  • Genie (Uniswap's new platform ) is bringing in a range of 3-6 trades per user. 

  • The typical range of sales is under .5 ETH on most marketplaces.

  • But on Looksrare, the amount is significantly larger than the rest. (likely due to the token incentive for trading on Looksrare.)

This graph indicates the average sale size- aka where are the whales at? Not surprisngly, large transactions are going to LooksRare, because they get rewarded with their native token.

Now lets apply this logic to regular, non whale traders:

While OpenSea may take dominance in the market, it might not last longterm.

These marketplaces compete for everyday traders. Start to play with their platforms and take note: what features/user experience do they offer? Who ever provides the most value PLUS ease of use to an average NFT trader will be the winner. 

Marketplaces to look into: Gemini, Blur, X2Y2. 

🟧 Urgent BTC warning!

What happens if it falls past the support at $16,400?

This is a critical support line.

If BTC can't hold about $16K, the next likely level will trend to $10K. 

The good news?

If you're reading this, you're STILL early. Zoom out and trust Bitcoin will do its thing and survive like every other time it was announced "dead'. 

The important thing is: front run the opprotnuity.

  • If you don't have a twitter or you're not active, make it a goal to get active.

  • Learn a new skill like coding, copywriting, marketing, or 3D art. Plenty of online classes!

  • Go to events and meet new people. It's hard at first, but nothing good happens in your comfort zone.

  • Explore your passions: lean into the things you love and more of it.

Looking at charts will only serve you if you are actively trading, which is risky if you're not experienced. 

Don't be the person who "could've" been a crypto millionaire. 

That's probably the lamest life regret.

Be the person who took advantage of their situation to get rich. 

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In the next week, two giant companies will release NFT projects you don't want to miss. 🥤👟

If you are still in the apocalypse, you're not alone. 

The biggest companies are still here, taking advantage of the fear and BUILDING. 

Before we start 

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Coca-Cola

In partnership with Crypto.com, Coca-Cola will launch a collection of 10K NFTs known as the "piece of magic" generated from heatmaps from players' in-game performance during matches.

Pretty cool.

How can you get it? 

And be the first to claim an NFT during the matches. It's as easy as that. 

What happened after the announcement?

Crypto.com's native token $CRO, surged 10% due to the partnership. 

New RTFKT drip dropping. 

We could write about it, but the trailer speaks for itself. 

How to get your hands on a pair.

Here is a quick link for you to sign up: https://rtfkt.com/register/

Seedphrase Hub ⚡️

😂 Meme of the Day: 

Ok not a meme per se, but its Vitalik.

DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research

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