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- 🧠 The markets are a scam. Don't believe it.
🧠 The markets are a scam. Don't believe it.
Technical analysis and macro-trends made easy
GM Seedphrase Nation 👋 It's Technical Analysis Tuesday! Some are saying a bull run is upon us. But let's see what's really going on...
Today’s Agenda: 📓
🧠 Sign of a Scam Pump
📊 Inflation is under control...maybe?
🔥 Top 10 performing coins
🔮 Perpetual future interest & BTC.
🧠 One Sign of a "Scam Pump"
The crypto market is a tricky situation at the moment, with some people calling it a "scam pump."
But what does that even mean?
Well, let's break it down. 👇
When big players start buying a lot of crypto with money they don't own, it's called "futures open interest."
And when open interest is increasing, prices tend to start pumping.
But, if open interest is decreasing while prices pump, it's likely a "scam pump."
Which is what's happening now. 👀
Another metric to watch: "RSI." Think of RSI as a thermometer for the market.
If RSI is high, that means the market is too hot and a "sell-off" is likely incoming.
What you need to know:
Right now, open interest is decreasing and RSI is higher than Snoop Dogg. It's likely that whales are manipulating the market, which brings us to a "scam pump."
Investing Moves: 👇
Smart money picked up crypto when BTC was $14k
New money, and FOMO money, is buying now.
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📈 Inflation is Under Control...maybe?
People who bought at the bottom are celebrating like it's 1999.
What made the markets uno reverse?
CPI data.
CPI is a way to measure inflation by measuring the price of basic goods & services.
When the CPI number goes up, it means buying basic goods is more expensive. So people have less money to spend on other things, like crypto...and fidget spinners.
Conversely, when CPI is trending down, people tend to have more money to spend. Demand for crypto goes up, and the prices increase.
Inflation this month: 👇
✅ Getting cheaper:
Inflation has declined by 6.5% for the year.
Energy services declined 17% month over month,
Gasoline prices fell 9.4% over the same period.
❌ Getting expensive:
Food is up 10%
Shelter/housing is up 2.9%
Apparel wear is up 7.5%
The effect it had on Bitcoin:
Here's an ugly graph... (we break it down after)
The purple line is our market thermometer: the RSI.
Remember, when RSI is up, it means markets are heating up and a correction is usually in bound.
Recently, the price of Bitcoin touched $21,000 for the first time in months.Massive resistance is showing at the $21,400 mark.
At the same time, the RSI of Bitcoin is high.
⚜️ Golden Nugget: This means that it's likely that the price of Bitcoin might fall back down below $20,000 again. This is good news for those looking to scoop up some more discounted crypto.
The Counter Argument:
We're leaning towards the side of a correction coming soon, and hard.
However, a well-known trader, Nebraskangooner is anticipating BTC going to $24K, maybe even $28-$30K before the correction.
#Bitcoin
Doesn't necessarily look like a long term bottom to me but also looks like it could go to $24k
Maybe even $28k or $30k+.
— Nebraskangooner (@Nebraskangooner)
1:10 AM • Jan 16, 2023
The Ethereum Pump:
The price of Ethereum hit a high of $1,594.04, and it's currently hovering over $1,500.
Ethereum's RSI is high too, right around 70, which could mean that the prices go down below $1,500 again.
Looking at the chart, support is likely to be around $1,400.
But here's something cool.
Ethereum has become "ultrasound money."
A self-title by ETH maxis meaning money is getting rarer and rarer.
The current supply of Ethereum has decreased by 387.20 ETH since the merge.
The burn rate for Ethereum is 779K per year, while the issuance of Ethereum is 622K per year.
This means that there's less and less Ethereum being created, and more and more being burned.
This makes Ethereum more scarce.
More Scarcity = Higher Value Perception
So, in the future, the value and price of Ethereum will continue to stabilize and grow as fewer and fewer are created.
🔥 Our top 3 coins in the top 10.
Out of the top 10 performing coins this week, these are the top 3 for us.
1. Ripple ($XRP)
Ripple moved positively with the overall crypto pump because it's believed the SEC lawsuit is entering its final stages. Hit a month high of $.40, from a low of $.32
2. Litecoin ($LTC)
Litecoin is seeing an increase in volume from anticipating the LTC halving on Aug 3, 2023, when most of the supply will be cut in half.
And LTC, like BTC, sees a price pump after each halving.
It went from a monthly low of $61.86 to a high of $90.65
3. Aptos ($APT)
We called Aptos weeks ago in our premium.
We even told you how to get the airdrop and to look for opportunities at the dip.
This week Aptos exploded 108% in the last 7 days.
Going from a $3.09 monthly low to a high of $8.78.
The top 10 list:
🔮 What does perpetual future interest tell us about the future of BTC?
If you don't know.
Perpetual future interest is how much people owe exchanges (currently trading).
And perpetual futures contracts are the means people use to open long/short positions.
When open interest is down, traders are staying away on the sidelines, indicating a bearish market.
Oddly enough, even though the price of Bitcoin and Ethereum have pumped, future open interest has gone down.
What does that mean?
This brings us back to the "scam pump."
People who bought crypto at sub $20K BTC are now selling. They are taking profits, because they believe the price will go down again.
Check out our premium Newsletter tomorrow for our alpha calls during this tricky market.
Did you learn anything? Share with a friend to spread the knowledge.
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😂 Meme of the Day:
mfers that buy derivative NFT collections
— stark (@0xstarkx)
8:53 PM • Jan 12, 2023
DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research
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