🧠 6 Horrifying signs in the market right now

GM Seedphrase Nation 👋 Another day, another trade.

Today's Agenda 📓: 

• 🔫 Rapid-Fire Headlines

• ♾ Macro Outlook

• ✋ 6 Horrifying Signs in Crypto Markets Right Now

• 😂 Meme of the Day

🔥 Super Hot Fire Headlines

Addressing the Coinbase fud 😀

• CEO Brian Armstrong tweeted their Q3 report

• They are already transparent and are legally obliged to be so as a public company

• They hold 2M BTC worth $39.9B as of 9/30 (Shown in their 10Q)

• It is doubtful that Coinbase will go under. Otherwise, many analysts in the space will need to be corrected. 

• Despite having their financials disclosed publicly, anything is possible.

• Do not consider Coinbase "safe." Consider it "less risky."

Magic Eden will add Polygon support 😨

• Another huge NFT marketplace is integrating Polygon. 

• Mainstream companies (Disney, Starbucks, Nike, Adobe) have already integrated Polygon to their web3 strategy. 

World Cup: Argentina's loss = Fan token tank.

Saudi Win = an NFT project pump ⚽️

• After the loss, the Argentina Football Association crypto fan token ARG fell from $7.20 to $4.96. The loss triggered fans to sell.

• The Saudis, an infamous NFT project, pumped 387% on Tuesday following Saudi Arabia’s 2-1 win against Argentina.  

Cathie Wood believes BTC will reach $1M by 2030 (video) 🤨

Cathie Wood is a highly famous, powerful, and influential American investor and CEO of Ark Invest.

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A Taste of Premium:

Today’s premium newsletter covers:

• 📊 Full market analysis. Crypto, Macro, Geopolitics 

• 🔒 The Safest Bets in Crypto. 

• 🤨 Who is Profitable Right Now? 

• ✋ 6 Horrifying Signs in Crypto Markets Right Now

• ⏳ A Full Debrief: Genesis' Messy Timeline 

• ⭐️ Crypto's next step: Big Bank Infiltration.

• ⭐️ The Best Strategy for You.

If you want to 10x your knowledge in ONE email, then stop wasting time! 

Here, we’ll just be covering 

• Macro Outlook.

• 6 Horrifying Signs in Crypto Markets Right Now.

Let's go.

Macro Outlook

Bear Market Patterns:

If we look at the 2008 crash, there are striking similarities between then and now.

Market History: If we continue to follow a similar trajectory as 2008 market cycles: one can deduct the possibility of having seven more months of economic downturn before markets start turning around. 

Crypto History: BTC typically falls 85% relative to its most recent bull run. An 85% fall from the last ATH would be 10k BTC. 

This is a very real and potential support level. 

Worst case: if BTC falls below 10K, 6k at that point looks very plausible. 

Even Bezo agrees 😨

Macroeconomic Metrics: 🌎

Gigantic layoffs at:

• Amazon (10K)

• Meta (11K)

• Coinbase (1K)

• Twitter (3.7K, or 50% of its workforce)

Not to mention all their revenues are down.

Geopolitics: 

• UK & India are facing alarming inflation rates

• Energy crisis in countries like the UK, Germany, and France have no sign of stopping

• Ukraine and Russia war show no sign of peace

6 Horrifying Signs in Crypto Markets Right Now

1. FTX Hacker Signaling Huge ETH Dump

• Hacker moved stolen funds of 200K ETH to different wallets.

• Why? Moving over different wallets prevents bots from picking up significant amounts of ETH that would heavily move the market price.

• Now, if they put all of the ETH tokens in one wallet, or 3, it would mean the market would be hit by that trade and mass FUD would start.

P.S.: Many are speculating on who the hacker is, with many claims that it's SBF using backdoor channels. While this MIGHT be true, we refrain from commenting on the hacker's identity until more facts come out.

2. Grayscale BTC Trust was down 46% on Monday + Genesis affiliation

• Grayscale is a mega crypto whale. What happens to Grayscale has serious ramifications in the market.

• There are claims Grayscale was heavily involved with Genesis lending. 

• Genesis is insolvent and owes $1.1B to lenders.

• Because Genesis holds $GBTC, they may sell to get liquid, leaving Grayscale's balance sheet completely lopsided.

• More info is below.

3. Bitcoin Miners are Closing up Shop and Defaulting.

• Iris Energy, a BTC mining giant, has defaulted on a $108M loan.

• Quick maths: the average BTC takes around $12K to earn 1 BTC. BTC at $15K means only a $3K profit. Not including business costs.

• Companies must liquidate their BTC supply/reserves to stay in business. 

A positive: The higher the hash rate, the more competitive the network is and more challenging to earn rewards mining. Higher hash rate also means higher security.

4. Jump Crypto Unloading to Exchanges:

• Heavy Hitter: Jump Crypto is one of the biggest trading firms in the world, not just in crypto.

• Follow the money: they are moving many assets onto exchanges, indicating a huge potential sell off. 

5. Down Tremendous: Exchange Wallet Holdings 

• Exchanges have plummeted in their wallet balances

• Why? Largely due to the fact people are scared and taking funds off CEXs in a hurry. 

• Crypto is one big question mark right now, just look at Binance:

View more crypto exchange wallet balances here, shout out to Dune Analytics.

6. The Big Short: Investors Short BTC and ETH in Record Numbers.

• Short investment product inflows represented 75% of the total inflows. 

• Sentiment: aggregate market sentiment is extremely negative.

• Assets under Management (AuM): total AuM is at the lowest point in 2 years at $22B.

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😂 Meme of the Day

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DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research